Tue, Jan 10, 2012·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 313 | 06 | 17 | 426 |
| COL | 06 | 118 | 09 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:31NSHNick SpalingAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Gabriel Bourque · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 7:41NSHRyan EllisPPGWGAssists: Martin Erat, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 15:05NSHMartin EratAssists: Mike Fisher, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 19:24COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Paul Stastny · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 15:34NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:18COLTJ Galiardi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:53NSHMatt Halischuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:12COLGabriel Landeskog: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:25NSHFrancis Bouillon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:31COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:51NSHPatric Hornqvist: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Spaling – Bourque11:22
xG 1.00–0.25 (80%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Halischuk – Smith4:36
xG 0.45–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn11:13
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson12:45
xG 0.18–0.76 (19%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Ellis10:31
xG 1.09–0.20 (84%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Bouillon – Klein3:49
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Klein – Josi14:08
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – Galiardi9:21
xG 0.53–0.05 (92%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog13:50
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Kobasew – McClement – Winnik7:54
xG 0.23–0.64 (26%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
- Van Der Gulik – Porter – McLeod4:48
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Wilson10:00
xG 0.66–0.16 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Quincey – Elliott8:22
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Quincey – Wilson8:43
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).