Tue, Jan 10, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 012 | 08 | 28 | 228 |
| ANA | 17 | 16 | 313 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30ANASaku KoivuAssists: Toni Lydman · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 9:22ANALuca SbisaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 1:39DALSteve OttAssists: Michael Ryder, Nicklas Grossmann · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 2:43DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Steve Ott, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 9:32ANASaku KoivuGWGAssists: Teemu Selanne, Francois Beauchemin · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 14:40ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 19:06ANASaku KoivuENAssists: Teemu Selanne, Niklas Hagman · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:58ANASheldon Brookbank: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:44DALJake Dowell: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:08ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:10ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:51DALSheldon Souray: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:15DALAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Ott – Benn10:33
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Burish – Dowell – Benn4:07
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Morrow – Eriksson – Wandell12:52
xG 0.25–0.38 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom8:24
xG 0.17–0.44 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Daley2:52
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas2:27
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski2:13
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Hagman10:30
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Blake – Cogliano – Bonino11:35
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Pelley – Beleskey – Palmieri4:34
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan12:38
xG 0.23–0.59 (28%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Sbisa12:42
xG 0.88–0.36 (71%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Lydman – Brookbank12:54
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Fowler15:54
xG 0.48–0.60 (44%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).