Thu, Jan 12, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 3, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 17 | 29 | 324 |
| NYR | 013 | 011 | 010 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:54OTTJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Chris Phillips · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 13:58OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Erik Karlsson, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–0
- P3 15:33OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:43NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:43OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:52OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:29OTTFilip Kuba: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:15NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Kneeing2 min
- P2 19:47OTTChris Neil: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:37NYRRyan Callahan: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:12OTTMilan Michalek: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Condra – Turris10:45
xG 0.96–0.57 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Konopka – Daugavins – Butler4:31
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith11:26
xG 0.21–0.61 (25%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening14:31
xG 0.39–0.91 (30%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson15:03
xG 0.95–0.83 (53%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Cowen18:46
xG 0.58–0.90 (39%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Phillips – Lee11:11
xG 0.24–0.86 (22%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Hagelin14:27
xG 0.92–0.47 (66%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan6:31
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Richards – Prust – Anisimov2:24
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Callahan – Stepan6:00
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh17:37
xG 0.96–0.46 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Staal – Bickel13:34
xG 0.86–0.53 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto10:45
xG 0.64–0.66 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).