Thu, Jan 12, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 19 | 06 | 110 | 02 | 1 | 227 |
| DET | 113 | 011 | 115 | 03 | 2 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:41PHXRadim VrbataAssists: David Rundblad · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 19:09DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Ian White · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 3:02PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Kyle Chipchura · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 10:03DETJohan FranzenAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Daniel Cleary · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 2. PHX Gilbert Brule stopped
- 3. DET Jiri Hudler stopped
- 4. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
- 5. DET Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 6. PHX Oliver Ekman-Larsson stopped
- 7. DET Henrik Zetterberg scored
- 8. PHX Lauri Korpikoski stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:46PHXRay Whitney: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:46DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 9:08DETJiri Hudler: Holding2 min
- P2 17:17PHXGilbert Brule: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLangkow – Doan – Boedker13:00
xG 0.48–0.37 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Torres – Chipchura8:59
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Pouliot12:26
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Gordon – Korpikoski – Brule10:42
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Rundblad6:21
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 5–8goals 2–0
- Aucoin – Klesla2:27
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson17:14
xG 0.63–0.57 (53%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Franzen12:58
xG 0.79–0.35 (69%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Miller – Helm – Mursak9:00
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Abdelkader – Emmerton5:24
xG 0.19–0.26 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler15:30
xG 0.44–0.61 (42%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White16:08
xG 0.78–0.41 (66%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Kindl3:02
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall12:23
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).