Thu, Jan 12, 2012·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 05 | 110 | 223 |
| CHI | 113 | 38 | 19 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 11:33CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Sean O'Donnell, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 8:53CHIJimmy HayesPPAssists: Dave Bolland, Andrew Brunette · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 9:16CHIViktor StalbergGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Steve Montador · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 16:27CHIDave BollandPPAssists: Steve Montador, Jimmy Hayes · Backhand, 0.37 xG1–4
- P3 8:56MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Darroll Powe · Slap, 0.35 xG2–4
- P3 18:34CHIDave BollandENAssists: Michael Frolik, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:31MINNick Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:20MINJustin Falk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:00MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 2:28CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Clutterbuck – Wellman8:32
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi14:38
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Peters – Staubitz – McIntyre6:52
xG 0.23–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – Powe13:45
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Zidlicky15:30
xG 1.11–0.41 (73%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Zanon – Stoner15:18
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
- Falk – Spurgeon19:08
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Frolik – Shaw5:17
xG 0.26–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Hossa – Bolland – Frolik5:31
xG 0.19–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Mayers – Bickell – Smith6:49
xG 0.02–0.08 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brunette – Hayes – Shaw4:50
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hjalmarsson – Leddy14:23
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Montador14:13
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 16–6goals 2–1
- Keith – Seabrook16:57
xG 0.48–0.71 (41%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).