Fri, Jan 13, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 18 | 215 | 331 |
| WSH | 28 | 15 | 17 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:52WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 5:45WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 5:25WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Brooks Laich, Mike Knuble · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–3
- P2 17:06TBLTom PyattAssists: Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 16:36TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Ryan Malone, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:00WSHTroy BrouwerENGWGAssists: Brooks Laich, Jeff Halpern · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–4
- P3 19:49TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Ryan Malone, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:48TBLPavel Kubina: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:01TBLMartin St. Louis: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:07TBLEric Brewer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 11:04WSHJay Beagle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:01WSHRoman Hamrlik: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:16WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:42WSHKarl Alzner: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:42TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:09TBLBrett Clark: Holding2 min
- P3 13:49WSHTroy Brouwer: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:49TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:49WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:00WSHRoman Hamrlik: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Thompson – Stamkos8:33
xG 0.49–0.03 (95%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Pyatt5:41
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Moore – Downie – Purcell4:04
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Tyrell3:49
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Gervais2:37
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kubina – Brewer14:55
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Mikkelson – Gilroy4:40
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Eakin5:45
xG 0.26–0.06 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Knuble – Laich – Brouwer10:30
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Halpern – Ward – Hendricks10:28
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Johansson10:38
xG 0.07–0.56 (11%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamrlik – Wideman6:34
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wideman – Alzner3:21
xG 0.01–0.04 (24%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Carlson2:50
xG 0.05–0.08 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).