Fri, Jan 13, 2012·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 018 | 214 | 29 | 441 |
| FLA | 06 | 011 | 19 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:49PITSteve SullivanAssists: Matt Cooke · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 19:25PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: James Neal, Chris Kunitz · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 0:36PITTyler KennedyAssists: Brooks Orpik, Pascal Dupuis · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 6:55FLAMichal RepikAssists: Jason Garrison, Krys Barch · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 15:43PITJames NealAssists: Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.04 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:39FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:39PITArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:40PITPascal Dupuis: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:33FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:39FLAKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:47FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:47PITEric Tangradi: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:12FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:39FLAMichal Repik: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jeffrey won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal11:19
xG 1.09–0.22 (83%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Asham – Adams – Tangradi4:04
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kennedy – Jeffrey7:39
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Park – Sullivan – Cooke6:25
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 3–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Michalek2:22
xG 0.49–0.02 (97%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek15:32
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Niskanen – Lovejoy4:49
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarch – Santorelli – Repik2:29
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Bradley – Goc – Matthias2:02
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Bradley – Barch – Santorelli4:32
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Goc – Matthias2:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov10:18
xG 0.31–0.14 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov6:00
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Jovanovski – Campbell2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).