Sat, Jan 14, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Rangers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 214 | 18 | 330 |
| TOR | 05 | 07 | 08 | 020 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:35NYRMike RuppGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Wojtek Wolski · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 16:28NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Brandon Prust, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 6:01NYRDerek StepanAssists: Carl Hagelin, Martin Biron · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:49TORTim Connolly: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:03TORCody Franson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:17NYRMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:52NYRCarl Hagelin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steckel won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Prust5:34
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Anisimov6:12
xG 0.35–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Boyle – Prust – Hagelin6:40
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Rupp – Wolski – Anisimov4:16
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh17:35
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Staal – Stralman2:44
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto4:14
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLombardi – Crabb – Kadri5:42
xG 0.45–0.10 (82%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Steckel – Boyce – Brown9:08
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Lombardi – MacArthur – Kadri2:41
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Kadri2:37
xG 0.06–0.01 (81%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Franson12:02
xG 0.64–0.35 (65%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Aulie14:43
xG 0.50–0.39 (57%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Franson2:51
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).