Sat, Jan 14, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 06 | 212 | 00 | 1 | 325 |
| MTL | 09 | 012 | 211 | 03 | 0 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:42MTLTomas PlekanecSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P3 5:57OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Nick Foligno · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 13:42OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Filip Kuba · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 19:21MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL Lars Eller stopped
- 2. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
- 3. MTL Tomas Kaberle stopped
- 4. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 5. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 6. OTT Daniel Alfredsson scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:12MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 9:38OTTZenon Konopka: Interference2 min
- P1 11:40OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:18MTLYannick Weber: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 18:45OTTKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:09OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 8:24OTTZack Smith: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:52MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:15MTLMax Pacioretty: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:22MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 19:32MTLJosh Gorges: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Spezza – Michalek3:09
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Turris – Butler3:21
xG 0.28–0.16 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Condra – Turris5:09
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith7:06
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson11:01
xG 0.55–0.18 (75%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Phillips – Carkner7:13
xG 0.20–0.02 (89%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson2:23
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Plekanec – Blunden7:43
xG 0.19–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gomez – Plekanec – Kostitsyn2:13
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty8:56
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller9:27
xG 0.16–0.32 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Campoli3:02
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gill – Campoli2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Gill – Weber4:09
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).