Mon, Jan 16, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 1, Phoenix Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 014 | 011 | 139 |
| PHX | 211 | 213 | 29 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:18PHXGilbert BrulePPAssists: Keith Yandle, Taylor Pyatt · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:36COLChuck KobasewAssists: Erik Johnson, Jay McClement · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 18:32PHXShane DoanGWGAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 10:54PHXShane DoanAssists: Chris Summers, Ray Whitney · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 16:37PHXBoyd GordonAssists: Ray Whitney, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 5:31PHXBoyd GordonAssists: Radim Vrbata, Chris Summers · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 15:54PHXRostislav KleslaAssists: Gilbert Brule, Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:15PHXKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:15COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 5:24COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:44COLRyan Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:50COLKyle Quincey: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Langkow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Porter – Stastny9:00
xG 0.67–0.11 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Porter – McLeod2:34
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Kobasew – Mueller – O'Reilly3:07
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Winnik – Mueller – Galiardi5:39
xG 0.36–0.28 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Wilson17:31
xG 0.89–0.37 (71%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- O'Byrne – Hejda14:07
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Quincey – Elliott16:14
xG 0.80–1.36 (37%)attempts 20–19goals 0–2
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Gordon – Korpikoski11:44
xG 0.95–0.80 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Whitney – Langkow – Doan11:39
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Chipchura – Brule – O'Reilly7:40
xG 0.03–0.36 (9%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Pouliot – Boedker11:40
xG 0.40–0.79 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Ekman-Larsson14:47
xG 0.93–0.56 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Morris – Ekman-Larsson3:04
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Summers15:00
xG 0.82–0.69 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).