Tue, Jan 17, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 08 | 06 | 02 | 1 | 126 |
| PIT | 113 | 011 | 011 | 06 | 2 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11CARJamie McBainAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 18:38PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Matt Niskanen, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
- 2. CAR Jussi Jokinen scored
- 3. PIT Chris Kunitz stopped
- 4. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 5. PIT James Neal scored
- 6. CAR Eric Staal stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:42CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:42PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:48CARAlexei Ponikarovsky: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:51PITPaul Martin: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:29PITDustin Jeffrey: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:03PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P3 10:14CARTim Brent: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:14PITJoe Vitale: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Jeffrey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Jokinen – Skinner11:26
xG 0.68–0.43 (61%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Brent – Stewart – Sutter3:45
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Tlusty11:45
xG 0.32–0.72 (30%)attempts 6–22goals 0–1
- Dwyer – Nodl – Sutter13:23
xG 0.13–0.79 (15%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Allen – Gleason15:34
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Allen – McBain2:36
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Harrison – Faulk18:58
xG 0.86–0.97 (47%)attempts 16–27goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Neal14:45
xG 0.75–0.30 (71%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Jeffrey2:02
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Park – Sullivan – Cooke2:17
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Adams – Vitale – Tangradi2:42
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Niskanen2:12
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Lovejoy8:01
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek14:15
xG 0.84–0.70 (54%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).