Tue, Jan 17, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Boston Bruins 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 06 | 211 | 112 | 329 |
| TBL | 111 | 110 | 310 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Matt Gilroy, Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 4:28BOSNathan HortonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 14:11TBLTom PyattAssists: Steve Downie, Matt Gilroy · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 16:48BOSNathan HortonAssists: Andrew Ference, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 4:58TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Dominic Moore, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
- P3 10:53BOSDaniel PailleSHAssists: Zdeno Chara, Dennis Seidenberg · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 16:15TBLDominic MooreGWGAssists: Ryan Malone, Steve Downie · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:39TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:58TBLBruno Gervais: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:52TBLDominic Moore: Elbowing2 min
- P1 14:24BOSAndrew Ference: Interference2 min
- P1 19:55BOSShawn Thornton: Holding2 min
- P2 7:05TBLVincent Lecavalier: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:23BOSDennis Seidenberg: Holding2 min
- P3 10:14BOSMilan Lucic: Interference2 min
- P3 13:14TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:14BOSTyler Seguin: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:21
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Pouliot – Seguin12:04
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Kelly – Hamill – Caron5:13
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic9:19
xG 0.61–1.02 (38%)attempts 15–8goals 2–3
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Boychuk3:46
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid7:40
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ference – Boychuk3:28
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos3:07
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Pyatt7:19
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 2–9goals 1–1
- Downie – Purcell – Stamkos3:42
xG 0.08–0.40 (16%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Mikkelson10:10
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Kubina – Brewer14:44
xG 0.78–0.58 (57%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Brewer – Gilroy2:41
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).