Wed, Jan 18, 2012·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 2, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 18 | 09 | 227 |
| CHI | 214 | 210 | 211 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:30BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:58CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Duncan Keith, Steve Montador · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 15:41CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Andrew Shaw, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–2
- P2 3:28BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Brad Boyes, Tyler Myers · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 5:36CHIMarian HossaGWGAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 13:25CHIJimmy HayesAssists: Andrew Brunette, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 4:11CHIDave BollandAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 6:48CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Dave Bolland, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:54BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:44BUFMike Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 2:32CHIJimmy Hayes: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:12CHIJamal Mayers: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:13CHIAndrew Shaw: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:28BUFTJ Brennan: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 6:39BUFTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:04CHIAndrew Brunette: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hecht won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKaleta – Gerbe – Adam3:03
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Ellis – Kaleta5:18
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Kaleta – Leino2:55
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Gerbe – Adam5:06
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Myers11:45
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Gragnani – Myers2:18
xG 0.04–0.13 (23%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gragnani – Weber8:39
xG 0.14–0.25 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMayers – Frolik – Smith8:31
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Toews – Kane13:38
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Shaw10:01
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Brunette – Bolland – Hayes6:44
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Leddy12:01
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- O'Donnell – Montador9:58
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Keith – Leddy2:39
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).