Wed, Jan 18, 2012·Pepsi Center, Denver
Florida Panthers 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 110 | 17 | 03 | 329 |
| COL | 09 | 116 | 217 | 12 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:51FLAMarcel GocPPAssists: Michal Repik, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 6:50COLPeter MuellerAssists: Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 18:48FLAStephen WeissAssists: Brian Campbell, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 0:20FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 3:36COLPeter MuellerPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Milan Hejduk · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 16:43COLPaul StastnyAssists: Peter Mueller, Stefan Elliott · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–3
- OT 3:55COLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Ryan Wilson, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:10COLShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00FLAShawn Matthias: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:42FLAKris Versteeg: Interference2 min
- P3 2:53FLATomas Fleischmann: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 8:33COLJay McClement: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMadden – Matthias – Repik7:49
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Bradley – Barch – Santorelli9:40
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg10:35
xG 0.46–0.75 (38%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Samuelsson – Kopecky – Goc10:47
xG 0.24–1.07 (18%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Kulikov2:07
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Weaver – Garrison2:29
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson12:26
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Mueller – Galiardi14:22
xG 1.23–0.34 (78%)attempts 20–11goals 2–1
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:44
xG 0.87–0.30 (74%)attempts 24–8goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Van Der Gulik – McLeod2:56
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Jones – Winnik7:52
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Elliott6:05
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Johnson3:52
xG 0.50–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – Elliott6:19
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).