Fri, Jan 20, 2012·United Center, Chicago
Florida Panthers 1, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 010 | 14 | 119 |
| CHI | 28 | 110 | 04 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:40CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane, Viktor Stalberg · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 19:43CHIDuncan KeithPPGWGAssists: Marian Hossa, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 13:05CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 0:43FLAJason GarrisonPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Tomas Kopecky · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:45CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:37FLAScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:36FLAJohn Madden: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:16FLAKeaton Ellerby: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:53CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:00FLAJack Skille: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:39CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Madden – Barch – Bergenheim5:16
xG 0.03–0.16 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kopecky – Goc7:40
xG 0.02–0.15 (12%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Upshall – Skille – Matthias8:17
xG 0.05–0.25 (16%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg11:42
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Ellerby11:12
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Campbell – Weaver2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson13:22
xG 0.16–0.53 (23%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestStalberg – Toews – Kane13:27
xG 0.68–0.22 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Brunette – Bolland – Hayes6:07
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Mayers – Frolik – Smith5:04
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Shaw11:13
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook15:11
xG 0.57–0.25 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Leddy10:19
xG 0.27–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Montador6:16
xG 0.20–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).