Sat, Jan 21, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 09 | 26 | 323 |
| TOR | 110 | 012 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:26MTLRene BourqueAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Erik Cole · Snap, 0.44 xG1–0
- P1 18:55TORMatthew LombardiAssists: Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 3:29MTLRaphael DiazGWGAssists: Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 11:25MTLLars EllerAssists: Travis Moen, Andrei Kostitsyn · Snap, 0.18 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:50MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:43TORClarke MacArthur: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:45TORMike Komisarek: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:56MTLHal Gill: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:23TORNazem Kadri: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:18MTLTomas Kaberle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Darche – Blunden3:00
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – Blunden2:57
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Moen – Bourque – Eller2:39
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gomez – Plekanec – Kostitsyn3:16
xG 0.08–0.16 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban13:55
xG 1.09–0.64 (63%)attempts 12–16goals 2–1
- Gill – Diaz4:58
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Emelin – Diaz2:01
xG 0.17–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLombardi – Kessel – Bozak9:57
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:08
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Crabb – Grabovski – Kulemin2:38
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Steckel – Crabb – Brown4:48
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Gunnarsson11:08
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Franson – Gunnarsson2:14
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner11:37
xG 0.55–0.39 (58%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).