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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 21, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg

Florida Panthers 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (SO)

Away

Florida Panthers

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Winnipeg Jets

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.

WPG winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
FLA2100713033423
WPG015115210042344

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:40FLAKris VersteegAssists: Marcel Goc · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:44FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Krys Barch, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
  3. P2 5:06WPGNik AntropovPPAssists: Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P3 5:54WPGNik AntropovAssists: Andrew Ladd, Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P3 6:51FLAKris VersteegUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
  6. P3 13:45WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Toby Enstrom, Antti Miettinen · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. WPG Bryan Little stopped
  2. 2. FLA Stephen Weiss stopped
  3. 3. WPG Kyle Wellwood scored
  4. 4. FLA Kris Versteeg scored
  5. 5. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
  6. 6. FLA Tomas Kopecky stopped
  7. 7. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
  8. 8. FLA Mike Santorelli scored
  9. 9. WPG Nik Antropov stopped
  10. 10. FLA Tomas Fleischmann stopped
  11. 11. WPG Antti Miettinen stopped
  12. 12. FLA Marcel Goc stopped
  13. 13. WPG Alexander Burmistrov stopped
  14. 14. FLA Mikael Samuelsson scored
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 6:21WPGNik Antropov: Elbowing2 min
  2. P1 7:14FLASean Bergenheim: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 8:14FLAMarcel Goc: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 11:19FLAKrys Barch: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 3:51FLASean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 7:01WPGJim Slater: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 16:54WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 18:44FLASean Bergenheim: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WPG
45% to win55% to win
← FLA attackWPG attack →
  1. P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Matthias
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLAWPG
23Shots on goal44
2.5Expected goals2.6
35Shot attempts80
27Faceoffs won41
3Power plays5
10Penalty minutes6
16Hits38
24Blocked shots7
12Giveaways14
6Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestKopecky – Goc – Versteeg5:05

    xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0

  2. Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg2:31

    xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  3. Bradley – Bergenheim – Matthias8:31

    xG 0.05–0.18 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1

  4. Kopecky – Weiss – Versteeg5:11

    xG 0.08–0.22 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestWeaver – Ellerby13:17

    xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0

  2. Campbell – Kulikov2:48

    xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Campbell – Ellerby2:23

    xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0

Winnipeg Jets

Forward lines

  1. bestAntropov – Wellwood – Ladd11:48

    xG 0.56–0.03 (94%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0

  2. Miettinen – Slater – Glass4:02

    xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0

  3. Wheeler – Little – Burmistrov7:28

    xG 0.19–0.12 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1

  4. Miettinen – Cormier – Burmistrov3:13

    xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHainsey – Enstrom13:07

    xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 17–6goals 1–2

  2. Stuart – Jones14:31

    xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 13–2goals 1–1

  3. Oduya – Bogosian13:41

    xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WPG 2.6 xGFLA 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WPGFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 94/100 · #49 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.59 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 45% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50WPG 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +39 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.

WPG winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).