Sat, Jan 21, 2012·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 27 | 210 | 04 | 421 |
| PHX | 015 | 112 | 29 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:02TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 15:39TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Steve Downie, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 6:15TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Trevor Smith, Pierre-Cedric Labrie · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 8:29PHXLauri KorpikoskiSHAssists: Boyd Gordon · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 16:39TBLSteve DownieGWGAssists: Vincent Lecavalier · Slap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 3:35PHXKeith YandleAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 16:01PHXRay WhitneyPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Shane Doan · Slap, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 7:33PHXMartin Hanzal: Interference2 min
- P2 9:08TBLBrett Clark: Interference2 min
- P2 18:20TBLBrett Clark: Interference2 min
- P3 1:20PHXRay Whitney: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:18TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:33TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Lecavalier – Downie – Purcell8:56
xG 0.65–0.64 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Smith – Stamkos2:47
xG 0.07–0.07 (49%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Thompson – Smith – Tyrell2:22
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Tyrell – Connolly2:31
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Gilroy2:46
xG 0.17–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kubina – Brewer13:38
xG 0.77–0.66 (54%)attempts 9–16goals 3–0
- Clark – Gervais2:19
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal13:43
xG 0.84–0.17 (83%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Torres – Chipchura3:34
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Torres – Chipchura – Brule7:36
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Doan – Gordon – Korpikoski9:38
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Ekman-Larsson16:29
xG 0.91–0.40 (69%)attempts 26–10goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Ekman-Larsson3:07
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Summers6:17
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).