Sat, Jan 21, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 17 | 07 | 225 |
| MIN | 05 | 414 | 17 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:38DALEric NystromAssists: Stephane Robidas, Vernon Fiddler · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 9:06MINDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Nate Prosser · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 11:03DALPhilip LarsenAssists: Alex Goligoski, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 13:37MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Matt Cullen, Devin Setoguchi · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 13:51MINChad RauGWGAssists: Carson McMillan, Jed Ortmeyer · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 14:36MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Dany Heatley, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 1:29MINDany HeatleyAssists: Warren Peters, Greg Zanon · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:14MINJustin Falk: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:08DALRadek Dvorak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:07DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:07MINDarroll Powe: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:19DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:19MINDarroll Powe: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:20DALMichael Ryder: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:08DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom10:33
xG 0.25–0.02 (91%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Petersen – Dowell – Vincour6:14
xG 0.04–0.02 (67%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ott – Burish10:10
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Ryder – Eriksson – Wandell11:00
xG 0.14–0.54 (20%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Robidas11:05
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Daley – Grossmann16:48
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Larsen18:30
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 24–14goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Brodziak – Johnson13:33
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Clutterbuck10:56
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Ortmeyer – Kassian – Rau3:15
xG 0.03–0.01 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Peters – Powe – McMillan5:46
xG 0.03–0.05 (34%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Stoner17:18
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Falk – Prosser14:26
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Spurgeon15:44
xG 0.37–0.67 (36%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).