Mon, Jan 23, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 07 | 07 | 122 |
| DET | 08 | 210 | 110 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:12STLScott NicholAssists: B.J. Crombeen, Chris Porter · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 0:51DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 8:52DETJohan FranzenGWGAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Todd Bertuzzi · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 16:57DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 19:39DETBrad Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:39STLChris Stewart: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P1 19:39STLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:39STLChris Stewart: Misconduct10 min
- P2 2:54DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:07STLJamie Langenbrunner: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:34STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:54DETTodd Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:54STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:25STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:58STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58STLDavid Backes: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:58STLAlex Pietrangelo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:58DETJimmy Howard: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Stewart – Berglund3:49
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Stewart3:28
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – D'Agostini2:31
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Sobotka – D'Agostini – Berglund8:07
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Shattenkirk5:54
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk9:41
xG 0.70–0.50 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Polak – Russell10:56
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Miller – Helm10:20
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Abdelkader – Emmerton6:12
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen11:42
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler12:36
xG 0.42–0.65 (39%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCommodore – Ericsson6:27
xG 0.31–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – White15:20
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- White – Ericsson2:55
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).