Mon, Jan 23, 2012·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 03 | 116 | 07 | 126 |
| NSH | 112 | 112 | 25 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:07NSHMike FisherAssists: Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 6:14CBJRick NashAssists: Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 19:31NSHMike FisherPPGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
- P3 7:37NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Craig Smith, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 16:51NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Martin Erat · Tip-in, 0.25 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:42CBJJohn Moore: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:52CBJBrett Lebda: Delaying game2 min
- P2 8:58NSHMartin Erat: Holding2 min
- P2 16:20NSHPatric Hornqvist: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:00CBJR.J. Umberger: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 2:52CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:52CBJDerek Dorsett: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Boll – Gillies7:27
xG 0.29–0.15 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Prospal – Vermette – Nash11:40
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Umberger – Brassard – Kubalik9:15
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Russell – Dorsett9:11
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Lebda16:16
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Johnson – Clitsome14:32
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Methot – Moore15:11
xG 0.57–0.86 (40%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Spaling – Bourque12:34
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Smithson – Halischuk – Smith6:54
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson11:11
xG 0.48–0.49 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn9:24
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHillen – Ellis13:33
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Suter – Weber15:59
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Klein – Josi15:06
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).