Tue, Jan 24, 2012·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 3, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 210 | 010 | 16 | 326 |
| CHI | 010 | 07 | 18 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:49NSHCraig SmithAssists: Matt Halischuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:34NSHMike FisherGWGAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 7:20CHIDave BollandPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 19:47NSHColin WilsonENAssists: David Legwand, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P2 1:17NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:50CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:09CHIDuncan Keith: Interference2 min
- P2 13:12NSHBrandon Yip: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:12CHISteve Montador: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:53NSHMike Fisher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 8:41NSHMartin Erat: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:17NSHShea Weber: Elbowing2 min
- P3 18:09CHIViktor Stalberg: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Erat – Kostitsyn10:57
xG 0.33–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson11:20
xG 0.19–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Yip – Halischuk – Smith5:31
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Spaling – Bourque8:25
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber21:40
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Hillen – Ellis8:13
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Klein – Josi16:42
xG 0.16–0.71 (18%)attempts 5–23goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Kruger – Shaw5:09
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Hayes – Shaw4:37
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bolland – Stalberg – Kane3:35
xG 0.07–0.02 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hossa – Stalberg – Kruger3:32
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Leddy15:21
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook19:08
xG 0.67–0.56 (55%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Montador5:13
xG 0.08–0.17 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).