Tue, Jan 31, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 119 | 210 | 340 |
| MTL | 18 | 07 | 013 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 4:01BUFVille LeinoAssists: Paul Gaustad, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 6:17BUFPaul GaustadGWGAssists: Brad Boyes · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:08BUFPatrick KaletaENAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:15BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:15MTLScott Gomez: Holding2 min
- P1 17:05BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:46MTLJosh Gorges: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:18MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:06MTLAndreas Engqvist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Gerbe – Ennis12:20
xG 0.68–0.38 (64%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Boyes – Gaustad – Kaleta4:12
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Roy – Pominville – Vanek3:32
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gaustad – McCormick – Ellis4:13
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Weber2:16
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Leopold – Sekera3:32
xG 0.05–0.02 (72%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Regehr – Leopold13:28
xG 0.81–0.96 (46%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCole – Desharnais – Pacioretty15:24
xG 1.09–0.48 (70%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Gomez – Plekanec – Bourque12:42
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Blunden – Eller10:46
xG 0.17–0.56 (23%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban15:50
xG 1.18–0.51 (70%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
- Emelin – Diaz3:16
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gill – Weber2:46
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).