Tue, Jan 31, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 5, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 18 | 412 | 530 |
| MIN | 211 | 17 | 17 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:04MINDany HeatleyAssists: Nick Johnson · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 12:36MINDany HeatleyPPAssists: Matt Cullen · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 1:29MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Matt Cullen, Justin Falk · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 9:33NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Kevin Klein, Brandon Yip · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 0:16MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Nick Johnson, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–4
- P3 9:22NSHBrandon YipAssists: Matt Halischuk, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 16:39NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 17:00NSHMike FisherAssists: Colin Wilson, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
- P3 19:39NSHMike FisherGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:39MINJustin Falk: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:15NSHShea Weber: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:02NSHJordin Tootoo: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:02MINCal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestYip – Halischuk – Smith10:06
xG 0.88–0.11 (89%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Legwand – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist3:08
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson5:32
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Wilson2:49
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber24:17
xG 1.30–1.01 (56%)attempts 20–19goals 4–2
- Klein – Hillen6:12
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Hillen – Ellis4:30
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Brodziak – Johnson14:45
xG 1.16–0.55 (68%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Clutterbuck13:07
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 5–12goals 1–2
- Ortmeyer – Kassian – Rau5:36
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Peters – Powe – McMillan12:23
xG 0.11–0.40 (21%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Spurgeon16:11
xG 0.96–0.56 (63%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Zanon – Stoner16:43
xG 0.51–0.54 (48%)attempts 13–19goals 1–3
- Falk – Prosser18:19
xG 0.17–0.81 (17%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).