Sat, Feb 4, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 1, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 013 | 010 | 110 | 01 | 1 | 134 |
| DAL | 010 | 110 | 04 | 02 | 2 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:12DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P3 5:18MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Nick Johnson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Erik Christensen stopped
- 2. DAL Loui Eriksson scored
- 3. MIN Matt Cullen scored
- 4. DAL Jamie Benn scored
- 5. MIN Jared Spurgeon stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:57DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
- P2 4:48DALMichael Ryder: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:29DALVernon Fiddler: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:53MINMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:53DALSheldon Souray: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:04MINCal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Brodziak – Johnson14:31
xG 1.20–0.35 (78%)attempts 21–14goals 1–0
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Clutterbuck11:35
xG 0.58–0.10 (86%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Christensen – Powe – McMillan7:05
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Peters – Powe – McMillan2:22
xG 0.03–0.09 (28%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Zidlicky16:31
xG 0.99–0.49 (67%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Schultz – Spurgeon15:06
xG 0.77–0.41 (65%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Falk – Prosser14:29
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBurish – Dowell – Wandell5:19
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ryder – Ott – Benn14:26
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Nystrom – Eriksson13:02
xG 0.30–0.67 (31%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Vincour8:04
xG 0.04–0.88 (4%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Larsen15:52
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas13:25
xG 0.39–0.82 (32%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann18:16
xG 0.42–1.38 (23%)attempts 17–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).