Sat, Feb 4, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 4, Edmonton Oilers 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 113 | 010 | 315 | 01 | 1 | 439 |
| EDM | 39 | 013 | 16 | 04 | 2 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:42EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Ryan Whitney, Ales Hemsky · Snap, 0.38 xG0–1
- P1 5:41EDMJordan EberleAssists: Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–2
- P1 19:23DETValtteri FilppulaSHAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 19:59EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Ryan Smyth, Ryan Whitney · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 2:18DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–3
- P3 5:49DETDrew MillerAssists: Darren Helm, Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 16:19DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Ian White · Snap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 19:21EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ales Hemsky, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 3. EDM Sam Gagner scored
- 4. DET Jiri Hudler stopped
- 5. EDM Ales Hemsky stopped
- 6. DET Todd Bertuzzi scored
- 7. EDM Taylor Hall stopped
- 8. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
- 9. EDM Eric Belanger stopped
- 10. DET Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 11. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
- 12. DET Daniel Cleary stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:19DETDaniel Cleary: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:37EDMCorey Potter: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:37EDMCorey Potter: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:56EDMLadislav Smid: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:05DETTomas Holmstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:05DETMike Commodore: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:05EDMBen Eager: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:34EDMRyan Whitney: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:09DETTomas Holmstrom: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:09EDMBen Eager: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:09DETMike Commodore: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Belanger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Zetterberg – Franzen4:25
xG 0.82–0.08 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Holmstrom – Abdelkader – Emmerton5:18
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen9:23
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Filppula – Hudler5:56
xG 0.07–0.07 (49%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White17:54
xG 1.11–0.37 (75%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Commodore – Ericsson7:50
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall10:58
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Eberle – Hall10:41
xG 0.88–0.59 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 1–2
- Smyth – Belanger – Jones11:40
xG 0.21–0.23 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Nugent-Hopkins11:57
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Eager – Petrell – Lander4:57
xG 0.08–0.36 (17%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSutton – Barker10:40
xG 0.76–0.66 (54%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Whitney – Potter14:51
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry17:14
xG 0.30–1.02 (23%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).