Mon, Feb 6, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 216 | 17 | 07 | 330 |
| TOR | 211 | 311 | 19 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 8:21TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 13:45TORJake GardinerAssists: Mikhail Grabovski · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 17:30EDMJordan EberleAssists: Jeff Petry, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 1:45TORPhil KesselAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 4:15TORTyler BozakGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 13:24EDMJeff PetryUnassisted · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–4
- P2 16:54TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 18:55TORPhil KesselENAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–6
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Hemsky – Nugent-Hopkins12:37
xG 0.82–0.43 (66%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
- Belanger – Horcoff – Jones11:04
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Eager – Petrell – Lander4:28
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Smyth – Horcoff – Hemsky3:00
xG 0.01–0.22 (5%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhitney – Potter17:34
xG 1.12–0.98 (53%)attempts 16–17goals 0–2
- Smid – Petry18:50
xG 0.93–0.87 (52%)attempts 29–20goals 3–0
- Gilbert – Barker15:54
xG 0.38–0.58 (40%)attempts 18–16goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Lombardi – Crabb13:02
xG 0.53–0.21 (71%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak15:06
xG 0.60–0.54 (53%)attempts 18–19goals 1–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:50
xG 0.79–0.86 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Armstrong – Steckel – Brown10:46
xG 0.16–0.63 (20%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson17:23
xG 1.41–1.20 (54%)attempts 19–20goals 1–1
- Liles – Franson19:44
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Schenn – Gardiner15:00
xG 0.73–0.69 (52%)attempts 19–20goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).