Tue, Feb 7, 2012·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 1, Philadelphia Flyers 0 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 07 | 03 | 01 | 2 | 118 |
| PHI | 010 | 015 | 016 | 04 | 0 | 045 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 2. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
- 3. NYI John Tavares scored
- 4. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
Penalties (6)
- P2 8:16NYIMark Streit: Holding2 min
- P2 10:35PHIAndrej Meszaros: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:35PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min
- P2 14:05NYIPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:14NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:45PHIMatt Carle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRakhshani – Bailey – Martin8:12
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares12:32
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Wallace – Niederreiter5:04
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Nielsen – Grabner9:08
xG 0.27–0.86 (24%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReese – MacDonald9:39
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Staios – Eaton2:46
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Staios – Streit11:03
xG 0.52–0.42 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux11:17
xG 1.61–0.44 (79%)attempts 25–6goals 0–0
- Sestito – Rinaldo – Couturier6:18
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Read11:22
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn12:11
xG 0.11–0.64 (15%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Bourdon13:45
xG 1.15–0.24 (83%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Gustafsson14:07
xG 0.83–0.63 (57%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros2:19
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).