Wed, Feb 8, 2012·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 4, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 116 | 212 | 18 | 436 |
| SJS | 012 | 210 | 115 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:30CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Chris Butler, Jarome Iginla · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 2:36CGYOlli JokinenPPAssists: Alex Tanguay, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–0
- P2 6:29SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Ryane Clowe, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 7:52SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 11:15CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 0:49SJSMichal HandzusPPAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–3
- P3 3:25CGYOlli JokinenGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:43SJSDouglas Murray: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:21SJSBenn Ferriero: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:31SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:31CGYCory Sarich: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:29SJSPatrick Marleau: Interference2 min
- P3 0:44CGYMark Giordano: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:23CGYKrys Kolanos: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:23SJSJim Vandermeer: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jones won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKolanos – Backlund – Bouma11:11
xG 0.53–0.15 (77%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay15:06
xG 0.78–0.55 (59%)attempts 11–23goals 2–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan6:35
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Comeau – Jones12:34
xG 0.31–0.84 (27%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Brodie10:49
xG 0.77–0.56 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler19:30
xG 1.26–1.07 (54%)attempts 17–29goals 2–0
- Hannan – Giordano16:32
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Ferriero5:04
xG 1.04–0.28 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Clowe – Ferriero – Couture7:07
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski9:20
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Winchester – Desjardins – McCarthy4:44
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Burns11:53
xG 1.50–0.77 (66%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Burns – Braun3:04
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- White – Burns2:18
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).