Thu, Feb 9, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 14 | 210 | 03 | 00 | 317 |
| NYR | 010 | 211 | 19 | 11 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:56TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brett Connolly, JT Wyman · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 4:33NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Derek Stepan · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 5:27NYRDerek StepanAssists: Dan Girardi, Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.41 xG1–2
- P2 5:48TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Teddy Purcell, Matt Gilroy · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 12:26TBLBruno GervaisPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 10:13NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Carl Hagelin, Anton Stralman · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 2:37NYRBrad RichardsGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:50NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:22TBLRyan Shannon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:53TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:53NYRBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:40NYRSteve Eminger: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:05TBLDominic Moore: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:31TBLBrendan Mikkelson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Moore – Thompson – Pyatt14:03
xG 0.41–0.39 (52%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Downie – Purcell – Stamkos12:44
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Shannon12:04
xG 0.20–0.69 (22%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kubina – Brewer14:56
xG 0.84–0.91 (48%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Clark – Hedman11:15
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Gervais – Hedman2:25
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Callahan – Hagelin8:47
xG 1.18–0.40 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan13:17
xG 0.88–0.46 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Rupp – Richards – Fedotenko3:25
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Dubinsky – Prust11:47
xG 0.24–0.55 (30%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh20:03
xG 1.46–0.67 (69%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
- Eminger – Staal12:21
xG 1.16–0.53 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto12:02
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).