Thu, Feb 9, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Nashville Predators 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 16 | 111 | 110 | 327 |
| OTT | 18 | 212 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Milan Michalek, Bobby Butler · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 18:46NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 7:50OTTChris PhillipsAssists: Bobby Butler, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 12:40NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Martin Erat · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 18:55OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Milan Michalek · Tip-in, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 13:35OTTChris PhillipsPPGWGAssists: Filip Kuba, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–4
- P3 19:50NSHMartin EratUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:14OTTNick Foligno: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 1:40NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Holding2 min
- P2 3:28NSHNick Spaling: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:32NSHFrancis Bouillon: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:16OTTJim O'Brien: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:18OTTColin Greening: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:49NSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:55NSHDavid Legwand: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:49OTTBrian Lee: Interference2 min
- P3 14:22NSHDavid Legwand: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:19OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Spaling – Bourque10:20
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Smithson – Halischuk – Smith5:33
xG 0.12–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn8:58
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson4:57
xG 0.14–0.72 (17%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis5:23
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Ellis4:24
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Klein – Josi6:42
xG 0.13–0.15 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Butler8:57
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Neil – Foligno – O'Brien7:39
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith8:32
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Greening – Turris10:21
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips9:01
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Phillips – Lee5:40
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson11:53
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).