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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 9, 2012·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Nashville Predators 3, Ottawa Senators 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.

OTT winsNSH wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:38Shot by Klein, saved by Auld
  3. P1 1:12Shot by Weber, saved by Auld
  4. P1 4:46Goal by Spezza (Michalek, Butler)+16 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Spezza, Michalek, Karlsson, Butler · NSH Legwand, Suter, Weber, Hornqvist, Wilson

  5. P1 5:26Shot by O'Brien, saved by Rinne
  6. P1 6:35Shot by Josi, saved by Auld
  7. P1 6:45Shot by Greening, saved by Rinne
  8. P1 7:05Shot by Weber, saved by Auld
  9. P1 9:22Shot by Daugavins, saved by Rinne
  10. P1 13:07Shot by Neil, saved by Rinne
  11. P1 13:14Foligno: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Neil, Lee, Foligno, O'Brien · NSH Bouillon, Smithson, Halischuk, Ellis, Smith

  12. P1 14:59Shot by Condra, saved by Rinne4v5
  13. P1 15:46Shot by Tootoo, saved by Auld
  14. P1 16:58Shot by Condra, saved by Rinne
  15. P1 18:46Goal by Bourque (Tootoo, Suter)+19 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Spezza, Michalek, Cowen, Butler · NSH Tootoo, Suter, Weber, Spaling, Bourque

  16. P1 19:39Shot by Michalek, saved by Rinne
  17. P1 0:00Period end
  18. P2 0:00Period start
  19. P2 0:12Shot by Weber, saved by Auld
  20. P2 1:00Shot by Karlsson, saved by Rinne
  21. P2 1:19Shot by Erat, saved by Auld
  22. P2 1:40Kostitsyn: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Alfredsson, Kuba, Greening, Turris, Karlsson · NSH Fisher, Erat, Klein, Kostitsyn, Josi

  23. P2 2:37Shot by Turris, saved by Rinne5v4
  24. P2 3:28Spaling: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Kuba, Foligno, Smith, Butler · NSH Smithson, Suter, Weber, Spaling

  25. P2 3:40Shot by Spezza, saved by Rinne5v3
  26. P2 4:01Shot by Kostitsyn, saved by Auld5v4
  27. P2 5:49Shot by Tootoo, saved by Auld
  28. P2 6:08Shot by Legwand, saved by Auld
  29. P2 6:34Shot by Condra, saved by Rinne
  30. P2 7:31Shot by Karlsson, saved by Rinne
  31. P2 7:50Goal by Phillips (Butler, Spezza)+21 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Phillips, Spezza, Michalek, Butler · NSH Legwand, Suter, Weber, Hornqvist, Wilson

  32. P2 8:32Bouillon: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Neil, Lee, Foligno, O'Brien, Cowen · NSH Bouillon, Tootoo, Spaling, Ellis, Bourque

  33. P2 9:41Shot by Spezza, saved by Rinne5v4
  34. P2 9:49Shot by Michalek, saved by Rinne5v4
  35. P2 12:16O'Brien: Elbowing (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Lee, Daugavins, Condra, O'Brien · NSH Bouillon, Legwand, Klein, Halischuk, Bourque

  36. P2 12:40Goal by Hornqvist (Suter, Erat)4v5+21 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Condra, Smith, Cowen · NSH Fisher, Erat, Suter, Weber, Hornqvist

  37. P2 13:35Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Rinne
  38. P2 15:18Greening: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Alfredsson, Phillips, Lee, Greening, Turris · NSH Bouillon, Fisher, Erat, Klein, Kostitsyn

  39. P2 15:45Shot by Smith, saved by Auld4v5
  40. P2 15:57Shot by Smith, saved by Auld4v5
  41. P2 16:04Shot by Weber, saved by Auld4v5
  42. P2 16:40Shot by Hornqvist, saved by Auld4v5
  43. P2 18:48Shot by Michalek, saved by Rinne
  44. P2 18:49Erat: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Kuba, Spezza, Michalek, Butler · NSH Legwand, Erat, Suter, Weber, Wilson

  45. P2 18:54Shot by Michalek, saved by Rinne5v4
  46. P2 18:55Goal by Spezza (Michalek)5v4+25 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Spezza, Michalek, Karlsson · NSH Bouillon, Smithson, Klein, Spaling

  47. P2 19:16Shot by Bourque, saved by Auld
  48. P2 0:00Period end
  49. P3 0:00Period start
  50. P3 0:45Shot by Klein, saved by Auld
  51. P3 1:45Shot by Foligno, saved by Rinne
  52. P3 2:24Shot by Smith, saved by Auld
  53. P3 3:45Shot by Bourque, saved by Auld
  54. P3 4:26Shot by Spaling, saved by Auld
  55. P3 5:06Shot by Legwand, saved by Auld
  56. P3 6:27Shot by Karlsson, saved by Rinne
  57. P3 7:48Shot by Spaling, saved by Auld
  58. P3 9:38Shot by Condra, saved by Rinne
  59. P3 11:55Legwand: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Neil, Foligno, O'Brien, Karlsson · NSH Legwand, Kostitsyn, Hornqvist, Josi, Ellis

  60. P3 12:03Shot by Weber, saved by Auld5v4
  61. P3 13:34Shot by Kuba, saved by Rinne5v4
  62. P3 13:35Goal by Phillips (Kuba, Foligno)5v4+10 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Phillips, Neil, Foligno, Turris · NSH Bouillon, Erat, Klein, Halischuk

  63. P3 13:49Lee: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Lee, Daugavins, Condra, Smith, Cowen · NSH Tootoo, Josi, Ellis, Smith, Bourque

  64. P3 14:22Legwand: Hooking (2 min)4v5

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Phillips, Michalek · NSH Legwand, Wilson, Josi, Ellis, Smith

  65. P3 16:13Shot by Spezza, saved by Rinne5v4
  66. P3 16:23Shot by Butler, saved by Rinne
  67. P3 16:21Shot by Gonchar, saved by Rinne5v4
  68. P3 16:38Shot by Foligno, saved by Rinne
  69. P3 16:58Shot by Hornqvist, saved by Auld
  70. P3 17:19Turris: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Alfredsson, Kuba, Greening, Turris, Karlsson · NSH Fisher, Erat, Suter, Weber, Kostitsyn

  71. P3 19:49Shot by Weber, saved by Auld5v6
  72. P3 19:50Goal by Erat, unassisted5v6+2 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Phillips, Michalek, Condra, Turris · NSH Fisher, Erat, Suter, Weber, Kostitsyn, Hornqvist

  73. P3 0:00Period end
  74. P3 0:00Final