Thu, Feb 9, 2012·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 17 | 24 | 520 |
| MIN | 15 | 09 | 110 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:13MINDany HeatleyAssists: Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 14:04VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.59 xG1–1
- P1 19:18VANMaxim LapierreUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 0:50VANHenrik SedinGWGAssists: Byron Bitz, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–1
- P3 7:32VANManny MalhotraAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Jannik Hansen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 15:58MINDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Nate Prosser · Snap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 18:47VANRyan KeslerENAssists: Alexandre Burrows, David Booth · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:49VANByron Bitz: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:35MINMatt Cullen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:49MINNate Prosser: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:35MINErik Christensen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:02VANMason Raymond: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:46MINCal Clutterbuck: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:46VANMaxim Lapierre: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:09VANAaron Rome: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:32VANMaxim Lapierre: Spearing5 min
- P3 19:32VANMaxim Lapierre: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:41VANDan Hamhuis: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:41VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:41VANKevin Bieksa: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:41MINDany Heatley: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:41MINCal Clutterbuck: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Bitz10:34
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Duco – Hodgson6:07
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Hansen – Raymond10:33
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Burrows – Kesler – Booth9:28
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa14:04
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Alberts – Rome16:16
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Salo – Edler15:15
xG 0.22–0.76 (22%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Christensen – Clutterbuck9:31
xG 0.21–0.08 (74%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Setoguchi12:46
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Peters – Staubitz – Powe4:06
xG 0.01–0.07 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Johnson – McMillan7:01
xG 0.15–0.52 (23%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Zidlicky15:07
xG 0.72–0.08 (90%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Falk – Prosser12:20
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
- Schultz – Spurgeon14:22
xG 0.30–0.55 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).