Mon, Feb 13, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
San Jose Sharks 5, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 212 | 212 | 535 |
| WSH | 012 | 118 | 212 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:12SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Dan Boyle, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 3:26SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–0
- P2 16:11SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–0
- P2 19:59WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Jason Chimera, Roman Hamrlik · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 4:36SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P3 7:03SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.51 xG5–1
- P3 10:22WSHRoman HamrlikAssists: Marcus Johansson, Troy Brouwer · Backhand, 0.01 xG5–2
- P3 14:09WSHJeff SchultzAssists: Mathieu Perreault · Slap, 0.02 xG5–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:57WSHJoel Ward: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:03WSHAlexander Semin: Interference2 min
- P1 15:01SJSDan Boyle: Interference2 min
- P2 0:51SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:42WSHBrooks Laich: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:44WSHJoel Rechlicz: Misconduct10 min
- P2 5:26SJSJoe Pavelski: Interference2 min
- P2 10:03SJSJustin Braun: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:45WSHJeff Halpern: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:47WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:48WSHTroy Brouwer: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Halpern won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Clowe – Couture4:54
xG 0.25–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – McCarthy2:42
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Clowe – Couture – Wingels4:44
xG 0.05–0.09 (33%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski6:27
xG 0.05–0.28 (15%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic15:28
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 18–17goals 1–2
- White – Braun8:25
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Murray – Burns11:48
xG 0.10–0.61 (14%)attempts 7–20goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Halpern – Brouwer6:47
xG 0.27–0.04 (88%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Brouwer – Beagle – Johansson2:31
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ward – Hendricks – Johansson4:10
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Perreault7:34
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Orlov13:43
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 23–4goals 2–0
- Alzner – Carlson11:44
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
- Wideman – Schultz11:43
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).