Mon, Feb 13, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 116 | 18 | 311 | 535 |
| MTL | 06 | 312 | 015 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:09CARJiri TlustyAssists: Bryan Allen · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 9:41CARJaroslav SpacekPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 11:53MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Chris Campoli, Mathieu Darche · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 15:57MTLErik ColePPAssists: David Desharnais, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 17:53MTLDavid DesharnaisPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–3
- P3 3:15CAREric StaalSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–3
- P3 8:50CARJamie McBainPPGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 19:24CAREric StaalENAssists: Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.60 xG5–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 10:49MTLRene Bourque: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:33MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:47CAREric Staal: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 3:59MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P2 6:45CARJeff Skinner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:45MTLDavid Desharnais: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:03MTLRaphael Diaz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:03CARJeff Skinner: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:36CARJay Harrison: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:02CARBryan Allen: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:11MTLChris Campoli: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:46CARJerome Samson: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:08CARBryan Allen: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:08MTLRene Bourque: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLP.K. Subban: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00CARTim Gleason: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Stewart – Tlusty6:25
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Samson – Skinner7:25
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- LaRose – Brent – Staal2:58
xG 0.03–0.00 (90%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Nodl – Sutter10:54
xG 0.10–0.60 (15%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpacek – McBain9:54
xG 1.23–0.28 (81%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Harrison – Faulk12:36
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Allen – Gleason14:19
xG 0.26–0.68 (28%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPalushaj – Eller – Leblanc9:23
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Darche – Plekanec – Bourque11:31
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty12:11
xG 0.54–1.31 (29%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban12:26
xG 0.46–0.33 (59%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Gill – Campoli5:19
xG 0.22–0.16 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Emelin7:22
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).