Tue, Feb 14, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 111 | 29 | 427 |
| TBL | 010 | 011 | 07 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04OTTErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, Bobby Butler · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 16:32OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Filip Kuba, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 12:37OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Bobby Butler, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 18:58OTTJason SpezzaENAssists: Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:24TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:34OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:04OTTBobby Butler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:30TBLPavel Kubina: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:36TBLVincent Lecavalier: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDaugavins – Condra – Smith10:05
xG 0.20–0.10 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – O'Brien8:50
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Greening – Turris13:38
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler11:17
xG 0.16–0.34 (33%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips14:32
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson18:34
xG 0.21–0.29 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Lee – Cowen11:10
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Malone8:03
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Moore – Shannon – Pyatt6:32
xG 0.06–0.01 (82%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Downie – Purcell – Stamkos9:46
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Wyman2:55
xG 0.02–0.05 (35%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Gervais3:47
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Clark – Gervais2:07
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kubina – Hedman3:53
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).