Sat, Feb 18, 2012·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Chicago Blackhawks 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 211 | 212 | 25 | 628 |
| CBJ | 110 | 014 | 010 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:13CBJDerick BrassardUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 12:27CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 16:48CHIViktor StalbergGWGAssists: Bryan Bickell, Dylan Olsen · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 13:39CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 15:30CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 4:43CHIMarcus KrugerAssists: Andrew Brunette, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–1
- P3 5:32CHISami LepistoAssists: Dave Bolland · Slap, 0.04 xG6–1
Penalties (9)
- P2 9:49CBJDerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:49CHIJimmy Hayes: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:37CHIDave Bolland: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:43CHIJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:43CBJDerek Dorsett: Instigator2 min
- P3 5:43CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:43CBJDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:43CBJDerek Dorsett: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 11:02CBJJohn Moore: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKenzie won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Toews – Kane12:06
xG 1.24–0.49 (72%)attempts 18–11goals 3–1
- Brunette – Hossa – Kruger9:42
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Stalberg8:38
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Mayers – Hossa – Hayes2:25
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Olsen12:44
xG 0.78–0.30 (72%)attempts 11–11goals 3–0
- Seabrook – Leddy17:32
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook4:09
xG 0.27–0.10 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Pahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett8:51
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Russell – Gillies6:54
xG 0.03–0.25 (12%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Prospal – Carter – Letestu12:15
xG 0.28–0.60 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard12:34
xG 0.31–0.86 (26%)attempts 13–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Lebda – Savard15:15
xG 0.38–0.37 (50%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Moore16:59
xG 0.42–0.70 (38%)attempts 15–13goals 0–3
- Tyutin – Johnson16:02
xG 0.46–0.93 (33%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).