Sat, Feb 18, 2012·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Vancouver Canucks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 04 | 110 | 112 | 226 |
| VAN | 211 | 312 | 113 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 9:16VANManny MalhotraAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Byron Bitz · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 3:18VANAlexandre BurrowsGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 6:02TORDion PhaneufAssists: Phil Kessel, John-Michael Liles · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 11:14VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 12:48VANSami SaloPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 8:25VANKevin BieksaAssists: Jannik Hansen, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–6
- P3 19:40TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Luke Schenn, Clarke MacArthur · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:19VANCody Hodgson: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:50TORClarke MacArthur: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:09VANAaron Rome: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:56TORPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:33
xG 0.97–0.46 (68%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak13:52
xG 0.85–0.56 (60%)attempts 21–11goals 1–3
- Steckel – Boyce – Brown7:55
xG 0.04–0.50 (8%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Connolly – Lombardi – Armstrong10:17
xG 0.03–0.49 (6%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gardiner16:24
xG 1.03–0.90 (53%)attempts 19–23goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Schenn2:01
xG 0.01–0.03 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Aulie9:17
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows12:54
xG 0.91–0.39 (70%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Kesler – Booth – Raymond11:27
xG 0.43–0.07 (87%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Higgins – Hansen – Hodgson10:04
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Bitz9:10
xG 0.34–0.88 (28%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRome – Tanev14:23
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa18:28
xG 0.82–0.98 (45%)attempts 21–16goals 3–2
- Salo – Edler14:34
xG 0.55–0.74 (43%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).