Sun, Feb 19, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
San Jose Sharks 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 119 | 18 | 233 |
| DET | 18 | 18 | 112 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 10:40DETDrew MillerAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.48 xG0–2
- P2 14:33SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 7:01DETDarren HelmGWGAssists: Drew Miller · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 15:16SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:48SJSBrent Burns: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:53DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:04SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:29DETJohan Franzen: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:17DETJohan Franzen: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:48DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:37SJSJason Demers: Interference2 min
- P3 14:54SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:54DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Clowe – Couture8:58
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Winchester – Mitchell – Desjardins3:29
xG 0.14–0.00 (97%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski2:42
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Handzus – Moore – McGinn7:18
xG 0.03–0.02 (65%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Demers8:23
xG 0.29–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- White – Boyle6:40
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Burns – Vlasic10:57
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen11:15
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Miller – Abdelkader – Helm8:09
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Emmerton – Mursak3:35
xG 0.02–0.14 (13%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler10:55
xG 0.27–0.51 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – White14:46
xG 0.88–0.45 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Kindl12:42
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Stuart – Kronwall13:50
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).