Sun, Feb 19, 2012·Madison Square Garden, New York
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 04 | 111 | 18 | 00 | 223 |
| NYR | 110 | 115 | 09 | 11 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:49NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Carl Hagelin, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 5:26CBJDerick BrassardPPAssists: Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 13:13NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Dan Girardi, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 18:27CBJRick NashAssists: Jeff Carter, R.J. Umberger · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 0:22NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:26NYRCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:21NYRMarian Gaborik: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:31CBJDerek Dorsett: Interference2 min
- P2 9:59CBJRick Nash: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:41NYRSteve Eminger: Holding2 min
- P3 12:17NYRAnton Stralman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Pahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett9:55
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Gillies – Johansen7:45
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard10:40
xG 0.13–0.65 (17%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Prospal – Carter – Letestu10:35
xG 0.15–1.04 (13%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Clitsome – Savard10:31
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Lebda – Moore18:03
xG 0.30–0.98 (23%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson17:10
xG 0.11–1.22 (9%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Anisimov – Stepan13:13
xG 0.76–0.07 (91%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin14:52
xG 1.12–0.50 (69%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Boyle – Dubinsky – Prust7:42
xG 0.20–0.04 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Del Zotto13:37
xG 1.24–0.10 (93%)attempts 20–4goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:27
xG 1.07–0.09 (92%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Del Zotto4:03
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).