Sun, Feb 19, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 217 | 25 | 19 | 531 |
| EDM | 05 | 27 | 016 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 6:34VANSami SaloPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.27 xG2–0
- P2 1:08EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Ryan Smyth, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 15:01VANKevin BieksaGWGAssists: Dale Weise, Manny Malhotra · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 16:40VANChris HigginsAssists: Jannik Hansen · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 18:23EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Ales Hemsky, Ladislav Smid · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 0:33VANDaniel SedinAssists: Alexandre Burrows · Slap, 0.07 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:42EDMBen Eager: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:12EDMLadislav Smid: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:19EDMAles Hemsky: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:13VANAaron Rome: Interference2 min
- P2 11:17EDMAnton Lander: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:20EDMAndy Sutton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Lander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows9:22
xG 0.60–0.22 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Malhotra – Lapierre – Weise9:30
xG 0.63–0.63 (50%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Higgins – Hansen – Hodgson9:07
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Kesler – Booth – Raymond9:44
xG 0.07–0.34 (18%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRome – Tanev11:51
xG 0.85–0.43 (66%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Edler – Tanev2:45
xG 0.39–0.10 (79%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa13:08
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 4–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBelanger – Hemsky – Paajarvi3:27
xG 0.64–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall14:41
xG 0.71–0.14 (84%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Belanger – Eager – Petrell4:30
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Jones9:27
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSutton – Barker13:25
xG 0.94–0.70 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Whitney – Petry9:48
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Smid12:19
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).