Tue, Feb 21, 2012·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 1, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 014 | 06 | 111 | 131 |
| BUF | 113 | 115 | 09 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:21BUFTyler MyersAssists: Derek Roy, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P2 3:41BUFThomas VanekGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 14:52NYIFrans NielsenAssists: PA Parenteau, Kevin Poulin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:53BUFJason Pominville: High sticking2 min
- P1 0:00BUFPatrick Kaleta: High sticking2 min
- P1 0:00NYIPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:14NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:14BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:51NYIMark Eaton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Bailey – Martin5:37
xG 0.93–0.30 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner6:03
xG 0.58–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares2:38
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares10:14
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Jurcina16:01
xG 1.45–0.31 (83%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Staios – Streit2:23
xG 0.03–0.02 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eaton – MacDonald2:26
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Ellis – Kassian7:32
xG 0.50–0.15 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Leino – Ennis10:59
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe12:30
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Pominville – Vanek13:03
xG 0.51–1.27 (29%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Myers8:20
xG 1.31–0.08 (94%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Leopold – Ehrhoff7:24
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Sekera – Weber4:08
xG 0.13–0.00 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).