Tue, Feb 21, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 213 | 18 | 09 | 12 | 432 |
| TOR | 19 | 113 | 110 | 00 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:44NJDPetr SykoraAssists: Adam Henrique, Matt Taormina · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 14:16NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Patrik Elias, Petr Sykora · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 14:32TORTim ConnollyAssists: Cody Franson, Joey Crabb · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 14:43TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 18:11NJDAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Anton Volchenkov · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:16TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 1:18NJDMark FayneGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Ilya Kovalchuk · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:35TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:36TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:36NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:36NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:34TORPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:59NJDEric Boulton: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:04TORMatthew Lombardi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zubrus won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Parise – Henrique14:03
xG 1.39–0.63 (69%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Zubrus – Ponikarovsky – Bernier9:22
xG 0.95–0.77 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Clarkson2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Sykora – Elias – Clarkson6:58
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 2–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Volchenkov17:22
xG 1.58–0.77 (67%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
- Harrold – Taormina9:58
xG 0.75–0.65 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Fayne – Greene16:58
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin13:24
xG 0.86–0.43 (67%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Connolly – Lombardi – Crabb9:05
xG 0.56–0.12 (82%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Steckel – Boyce – Brown4:20
xG 0.27–0.15 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak15:29
xG 0.68–0.90 (43%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gardiner10:28
xG 0.64–0.22 (75%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Liles – Gardiner2:46
xG 0.04–0.14 (23%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner3:40
xG 0.06–0.21 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).