Tue, Feb 21, 2012·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Anaheim Ducks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 211 | 011 | 230 |
| TBL | 27 | 16 | 03 | 316 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Ryan Malone, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–1
- P1 17:58TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brett Clark, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 0:40ANASaku KoivuAssists: Bobby Ryan, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 2:40TBLTeddy PurcellGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Matt Gilroy · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 18:38ANABobby RyanAssists: Saku Koivu · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:22ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:37TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:17ANATeemu Selanne: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:57TBLBrett Connolly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Ryan14:44
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Cogliano2:38
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Blake – Getzlaf – Perry11:24
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Beleskey – Bonino7:25
xG 0.11–0.15 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler18:59
xG 0.60–0.30 (66%)attempts 20–10goals 2–1
- Lydman – Brookbank15:00
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa15:08
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Wyman – Pyatt – Smith8:11
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos15:18
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Shannon – Angelidis – Connolly4:00
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Malone – Thompson11:55
xG 0.15–0.34 (30%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Clark – Gilroy13:30
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Brewer – Hedman19:51
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 10–22goals 1–0
- Gervais – Mikkelson13:55
xG 0.04–0.57 (6%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).