Wed, Feb 22, 2012·Pepsi Center, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 010 | 014 | 19 | 133 |
| COL | 311 | 111 | 05 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:04COLMark OlverAssists: David Jones, Daniel Winnik · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:04COLPaul StastnyGWGUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 17:22COLJay McClementAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Chuck Kobasew · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 12:45COLPaul StastnyAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–4
- P3 4:35LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Mike Richards · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:16COLSteve Downie: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:58LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:58COLRyan Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:58COLChuck Kobasew: Misconduct10 min
- P2 8:58LAKJordan Nolan: Misconduct10 min
- P2 8:58LAKJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:13COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min
- P2 13:56COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Richards – King5:03
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Williams – Richards – Kopitar8:54
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Stoll – Richardson – Clifford2:48
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stoll – Brown – King7:19
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty18:23
xG 0.86–0.16 (84%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Greene – Martinez11:37
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Greene2:30
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Kobasew – McClement – McLeod5:29
xG 0.03–0.00 (93%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Winnik – Olver9:50
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Hejduk – Stastny – Duchene13:11
xG 0.49–0.66 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Downie – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:38
xG 0.18–0.43 (29%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Elliott2:29
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Wilson5:21
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Johnson3:16
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).