Thu, Feb 23, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
San Jose Sharks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 29 | 09 | 225 |
| TOR | 05 | 09 | 116 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:32SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 10:43SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Dan Boyle · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 3:53TORJake GardinerAssists: Phil Kessel, Luke Schenn · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 10:27TORLuke Schenn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:29TORMikhail Grabovski: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:48TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:48SJSJim Vandermeer: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Couture – Wingels13:24
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski13:20
xG 0.60–0.56 (52%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn9:02
xG 0.01–0.71 (2%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Demers12:50
xG 0.72–0.67 (52%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- White – Braun8:01
xG 0.37–0.33 (52%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic2:45
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Lombardi – Crabb13:18
xG 0.94–0.34 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak14:35
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin13:19
xG 0.77–0.66 (54%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
- Steckel – Boyce – Brown3:37
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Franson16:34
xG 0.94–0.23 (80%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner6:42
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Liles – Gardiner2:12
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).