Thu, Feb 23, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 06 | 310 | 325 |
| WPG | 216 | 210 | 08 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:59WPGTanner GlassAssists: Chris Thorburn, Mark Flood · Tip-in, 0.42 xG0–2
- P2 1:36WPGEvander KanePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 2:48WPGDustin ByfuglienPPGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.03 xG0–4
- P3 11:00TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Ryan Malone, Teddy Purcell · Snap, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 19:06TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Snap, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 19:51TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.00 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P2 0:14TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 2:39TBLRyan Malone: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:15WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:49WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:49TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:12WPGBlake Wheeler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:08WPGTim Stapleton: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:13WPGEvander Kane: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:14TBLMatt Gilroy: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:43WPGTanner Glass: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:43TBLRyan Malone: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:43WPGTanner Glass: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Shannon – Angelidis – Connolly2:05
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hall – Wyman – Smith2:18
xG 0.03–0.08 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Shannon – Stamkos2:14
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Malone – Pyatt – Purcell2:17
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Clark – Gilroy10:16
xG 0.17–0.84 (16%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Gervais – Mikkelson10:54
xG 0.23–1.20 (16%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Brewer – Hedman16:20
xG 0.15–1.27 (11%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little11:56
xG 1.14–0.18 (86%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Glass7:39
xG 0.84–0.28 (75%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Wellwood – Kane – Burmistrov7:40
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Flood4:21
xG 1.16–0.07 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:31
xG 0.81–0.25 (77%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Flood – Enstrom2:24
xG 0.46–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).