Thu, Feb 23, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers 0, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 014 | 06 | 015 | 035 |
| EDM | 09 | 215 | 06 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:26EDMTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: Ryan Whitney, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 8:04EDMJordan EberleUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:37EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:23PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:23EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:23EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:15PHIPavel Kubina: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:24PHIScott Hartnell: Kneeing2 min
- P3 9:21EDMRyan Whitney: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:21PHIScott Hartnell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:27EDMTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:06PHIKimmo Timonen: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Simmonds11:36
xG 0.82–0.44 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Schenn9:44
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Jagr – Brière – Read10:09
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Shelley – Talbot – Wellwood4:18
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Grossmann17:17
xG 1.01–0.33 (76%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Kubina – Carle14:30
xG 1.07–0.41 (72%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn12:23
xG 0.10–0.48 (17%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Hemsky – Hall12:56
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Petrell – Lander2:28
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Smyth – Gagner – Eberle11:06
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Belanger – Eager – Paajarvi8:39
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry14:08
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Sutton – Gilbert11:46
xG 0.54–0.64 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter16:41
xG 0.44–0.59 (43%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).