Fri, Feb 24, 2012·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 010 | 111 | 129 |
| DAL | 212 | 17 | 16 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48DALTom WandellAssists: Adam Burish, Trevor Daley · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 17:40DALLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Michael Ryder, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 3:53DALEric NystromAssists: Radek Dvorak, Vernon Fiddler · Snap, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 12:43MINDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 19:07DALTom WandellENAssists: Steve Ott, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:17DALAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- P2 8:11DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:38MINNick Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 15:02MINDany Heatley: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:21DALMike Ribeiro: Interference2 min
- P3 10:49DALSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 12:09DALMichael Ryder: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 13:53DALSheldon Souray: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Brodziak – Johnson4:40
xG 0.65–0.04 (94%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Cullen – Johnson – Powe5:47
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Clutterbuck – Powe3:21
xG 0.02–0.01 (61%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Setoguchi8:26
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon14:41
xG 1.02–0.62 (62%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Falk – Prosser11:20
xG 0.53–0.65 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Schultz – Zanon14:51
xG 0.15–0.43 (25%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPetersen – Vincour – Garbutt7:53
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ott – Burish – Wandell8:11
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Ryder – Eriksson12:33
xG 0.41–0.51 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom10:21
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski4:22
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Larsen9:16
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Fistric – Goligoski2:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).