Sat, Feb 25, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 114 | 010 | 135 |
| PIT | 39 | 212 | 313 | 834 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:09PITChris KunitzAssists: Evgeni Malkin, James Neal · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:59PITMatt CookeGWGAssists: Joe Vitale, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 14:40PITJordan StaalSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 10:11PITJordan StaalPPAssists: Steve Sullivan, James Neal · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 16:03PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Chris Kunitz, Deryk Engelland · Slap, 0.04 xG0–5
- P2 17:28TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Ryan Malone, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 5:50PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–6
- P3 13:42PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: James Neal, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–7
- P3 19:12PITPascal DupuisAssists: Jordan Staal, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–8
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:06PITZbynek Michalek: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:55PITZbynek Michalek: Interference2 min
- P2 5:51TBLMike Angelidis: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 5:51PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:23PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:23TBLDwayne Roloson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:54TBLBrendan Mikkelson: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:41PITMatt Niskanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:01TBLBrendan Mikkelson: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:01PITJoe Vitale: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 17:01PITJoe Vitale: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:36PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:01PITJoe Vitale: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:36TBLBrett Connolly: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestWyman – Smith – Connolly3:01
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hall – Wyman – Smith2:31
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Pyatt – Purcell6:53
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Angelidis – Wallace – Smith3:31
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Hedman13:46
xG 1.59–0.22 (88%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Mikkelson – Gilroy3:05
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Clark – Gilroy8:18
xG 0.66–0.67 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Park – Adams – Tangradi2:39
xG 0.12–0.07 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Asham – Cooke – Vitale4:08
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Dupuis – Staal5:32
xG 0.49–0.61 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal9:25
xG 0.44–0.89 (33%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Michalek11:27
xG 0.97–0.89 (52%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Engelland – Niskanen15:57
xG 0.37–0.91 (29%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang13:53
xG 0.82–1.37 (38%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).